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Chapter 8: Forecasting: Breathe Easy, You Can't Win The Sword Trade Is Hopping Getting Acquainted with Time Series Data Starting Slow with Simple Exponential Smoothing You Might Have a Trend
Starting Slow with Simple Exponential Smoothing
The first exponential smoothing method you're going to tackle is called simple exponential smoothing (SES), and it uses only one smoothing constant, as you'll see.
Simple exponential smoothing assumes that your time series data is made up of two components: a level (or mean) and some error around that level.
By preferring recent observations, SES can account for shifts in this level.
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